Tesla, Inc.$566.92(1.59%)
Crowd forecast $547.5 2020-01-31
yhoiseth Well-calibrated. Correct 76.92307692307692 % of the time. -415.47
$200 $700 forecast for 2020-06-30
2
Beyond Meat, Inc.$119.3142(-4.36%)
Crowd forecast $105.83 2020-01-31
dmoney Well-calibrated. Correct 80 % of the time. 4199.02 (edited)
$20 $200 forecast for 2021-12-31

Beyond meat creates plant based products that imitate meat products such as burgers, sausages and ground beef. They went public in may 2019 and after a 670% rally from $25 to $235 they are now back at about $80. The stock really crashed after the company released a somewhat disappointing 2019Q2 results and at the same time insiders, including the CEO were cashing out like crazy - which understandably did not build trust. They currently grow at about 30% per quarter and their products are getting available in selected stores and restaurants. Their sales are still tiny with 2019Q3 sales of $90 millions and even posted a $4 million profit for that quarter. Expected sales for 2020 is $360 millions which at the current pricing gives them a P/S of 14 - which is still crazy high. If things goes as planned they will have a P/E of 35 in 2023, which still is, expensive! Low debt, $350 million in cash and a market cap of about $5 billion gives them a lofty P/B of 13.

Competitive environment: The big players as Nestle, Morningstar Farms, Gardein, Tyson foods etc are also in this market and Beyond meats marketshare in the US for the meatless market is about 3%, but they are currently growing faster than the competition. The overall market for meatless is growing at about 25% a year and if BeyondMeat actually manages to capture significant market shares they definitely have a good business going on, and also potentially a candidate for takeover by one of the larger players in the food market. However, for their current valuation to make any sense everything has to go their way in the next few years.

Vegan and meatless has a lot of tailwind which I believe will help to keep the stock price higher than what is rational at this point, I therefore forecast a flat development over the next couple of years within a broad range since the volatility and uncertainty will be high.

2
Crowd forecast $1.65 2020-01-31
dmoney Well-calibrated. Correct 80 % of the time. 4199.02
$0.2 $0.8 forecast for 2021-12-31

Aurora cannabis operates in 25 countries and produce cannabis in 15 countries and own companies in the whole value chain. They have aggressively acquired companies for the last few years, financed by issuing new stocks which has diluted current investors. It has been a rough year for Aurora investors with a 80% crash from the top.

Financials: Market cap 2.1 Billions. P/B of about 0.5, but only $190 million in cash. P/S of 7.1. There is always a question how much are those assets really are worth if they were to try and liquidate some assets to improve runway? Currently their aggressive growth and expansion plan results in the company loosing money like crazy. 14% of shares shorted. Aurora expects their revenue to triple from around $200million in 2019 to $600million in 2020. Aurora has lately started to cut costs and slow expansion plans, but they will still probably have to raise more capital within a year regardless of their austerity measures.

Crowded space with many players trying to grow. The market is expected to grow substantially globally with a doubling within 2023 from todays total sales. Currently there are industry wide problems with sales licences and slow rollout of dispensaries, which makes it difficult to get products to market. This should however be a passing problem. Even though there is a movement of countries legalising cannabis products, this might stop at one point and even be rolled back if proves of negative effects starts to pile up.

The most important question in all of this is probably if Aurora will be able to operate with high margins and thus create a good business over time if they manage to tackle current problems and get out on the other side. Owning more of the value chain could help them, but my opinion is that cannabis is more like producing rice than it is a brand name like apple. I therefore believe that there are little chance of maintaining high operating margins over time.

2
AT&T Inc.$38.745(1.29%)
Crowd forecast $34.88 2020-01-31
Crowd forecast $32 2020-01-31
Facebook, Inc.$218.1804(1.54%)
Crowd forecast $220.33 2020-01-31
Crowd forecast $33.38 2020-01-31
Litecoin$58.37(-0.31%)
Crowd forecast $54.33 2020-01-31
dmoney Well-calibrated. Correct 80 % of the time. 4199.02
$30 $75 forecast for 2020-12-31
3
Microsoft Corporation$165.575(2.03%)
Crowd forecast $164.5 2020-01-31
dmoney Well-calibrated. Correct 80 % of the time. 4199.02
$155 $170 forecast for 2020-02-29
2
Netflix, Inc.$352.16(2.71%)
Crowd forecast $318.75 2020-01-31
Nokia Corporation$4.04(2.54%)
Crowd forecast $3.9 2020-01-31
Crowd forecast
SINA Corporation$40.25(2.73%)
Crowd forecast $37 2020-01-31
dmoney Well-calibrated. Correct 80 % of the time. 4199.02 (edited)
$50 $100 forecast for 2020-12-31

Sina is a Chinese online media company that has been around since 1999. Sina provides news related products in a whole range of different verticals. Sina has not been an enjoyable investment, falling 70% from it’s top back in 2010! What makes Sina interesting is not it’s media news business (Who cares? Definitely has not exited investors for the last decade), but their 46% stake in Weibo (Chinese twitter). Sina’s current market cap is $3 billion and their Weibo shares alone are worth around $5 billion, AND they’ve got $2.9 billion in cash. They do have some debt and are currently priced at P/B 1.

Apparently it seems like investors are afraid that Sina will be busy burning cash for the next few years, ensuring that the investors never will get their values realised. Recently however Sina announced that they will buy back $500 million worth of their own shares, which built some confidence in investors that Sina’s management is not complete idiots after all. The share quickly increased by 20%.

Sina then is mostly about Weibo. The Weibo stock is down about 64% from the top, maybe somewhat because of their slowing growth. Weibo is however very profitable and with $2.4 billion in cash, giving them financial leeway.

Sina’s own media news business is actually still growing and they are profitable and priced at a forward P/E of 15.

I believe Sina is way underpriced and may be target for an acquisition. Their core business is not sexy and Weibo have had some issues lately, but Sina’s share repurchasing program seems to me to prove that their management are intending to realise shareholder value.

2
Shopify Inc.$467.0276(3.53%)
Crowd forecast $418.75 2020-01-31
dmoney Well-calibrated. Correct 80 % of the time. 4199.02
$440 $480 forecast for 2020-01-31
2
Snap Inc.$18.995(2.01%)
Crowd forecast $16.93 2020-01-31
dmoney Well-calibrated. Correct 80 % of the time. 4199.02
$15 $18 forecast for 2020-02-29
2
The Boeing Company$317.57(0.31%)
Crowd forecast $301.25 2020-01-31
yhoiseth Well-calibrated. Correct 76.92307692307692 % of the time. -415.47
$200 $350 forecast for 2020-06-30
1
XRP$0.23538(2%)
Crowd forecast $0.21 2020-01-31
dmoney Well-calibrated. Correct 80 % of the time. 4199.02
$0.17 $0.23 forecast for 2020-02-29
2
Tesla, Inc.$566.92(1.59%)
Crowd forecast $547.5 2020-01-31
yhoiseth Well-calibrated. Correct 76.92307692307692 % of the time. -415.47
$200 $700 forecast for 2020-06-30
2
Beyond Meat, Inc.$119.3142(-4.36%)
Crowd forecast $105.83 2020-01-31
dmoney Well-calibrated. Correct 80 % of the time. 4199.02 (edited)
$20 $200 forecast for 2021-12-31

Beyond meat creates plant based products that imitate meat products such as burgers, sausages and ground beef. They went public in may 2019 and after a 670% rally from $25 to $235 they are now back at about $80. The stock really crashed after the company released a somewhat disappointing 2019Q2 results and at the same time insiders, including the CEO were cashing out like crazy - which understandably did not build trust. They currently grow at about 30% per quarter and their products are getting available in selected stores and restaurants. Their sales are still tiny with 2019Q3 sales of $90 millions and even posted a $4 million profit for that quarter. Expected sales for 2020 is $360 millions which at the current pricing gives them a P/S of 14 - which is still crazy high. If things goes as planned they will have a P/E of 35 in 2023, which still is, expensive! Low debt, $350 million in cash and a market cap of about $5 billion gives them a lofty P/B of 13.

Competitive environment: The big players as Nestle, Morningstar Farms, Gardein, Tyson foods etc are also in this market and Beyond meats marketshare in the US for the meatless market is about 3%, but they are currently growing faster than the competition. The overall market for meatless is growing at about 25% a year and if BeyondMeat actually manages to capture significant market shares they definitely have a good business going on, and also potentially a candidate for takeover by one of the larger players in the food market. However, for their current valuation to make any sense everything has to go their way in the next few years.

Vegan and meatless has a lot of tailwind which I believe will help to keep the stock price higher than what is rational at this point, I therefore forecast a flat development over the next couple of years within a broad range since the volatility and uncertainty will be high.

2
Crowd forecast $1.65 2020-01-31
dmoney Well-calibrated. Correct 80 % of the time. 4199.02
$0.2 $0.8 forecast for 2021-12-31

Aurora cannabis operates in 25 countries and produce cannabis in 15 countries and own companies in the whole value chain. They have aggressively acquired companies for the last few years, financed by issuing new stocks which has diluted current investors. It has been a rough year for Aurora investors with a 80% crash from the top.

Financials: Market cap 2.1 Billions. P/B of about 0.5, but only $190 million in cash. P/S of 7.1. There is always a question how much are those assets really are worth if they were to try and liquidate some assets to improve runway? Currently their aggressive growth and expansion plan results in the company loosing money like crazy. 14% of shares shorted. Aurora expects their revenue to triple from around $200million in 2019 to $600million in 2020. Aurora has lately started to cut costs and slow expansion plans, but they will still probably have to raise more capital within a year regardless of their austerity measures.

Crowded space with many players trying to grow. The market is expected to grow substantially globally with a doubling within 2023 from todays total sales. Currently there are industry wide problems with sales licences and slow rollout of dispensaries, which makes it difficult to get products to market. This should however be a passing problem. Even though there is a movement of countries legalising cannabis products, this might stop at one point and even be rolled back if proves of negative effects starts to pile up.

The most important question in all of this is probably if Aurora will be able to operate with high margins and thus create a good business over time if they manage to tackle current problems and get out on the other side. Owning more of the value chain could help them, but my opinion is that cannabis is more like producing rice than it is a brand name like apple. I therefore believe that there are little chance of maintaining high operating margins over time.

2
AT&T Inc.$38.745(1.29%)
Crowd forecast $34.88 2020-01-31
Crowd forecast $32 2020-01-31
Facebook, Inc.$218.1804(1.54%)
Crowd forecast $220.33 2020-01-31
Crowd forecast $33.38 2020-01-31
Litecoin$58.37(-0.31%)
Crowd forecast $54.33 2020-01-31
dmoney Well-calibrated. Correct 80 % of the time. 4199.02
$30 $75 forecast for 2020-12-31
3
Microsoft Corporation$165.575(2.03%)
Crowd forecast $164.5 2020-01-31
dmoney Well-calibrated. Correct 80 % of the time. 4199.02
$155 $170 forecast for 2020-02-29
2
Netflix, Inc.$352.16(2.71%)
Crowd forecast $318.75 2020-01-31
Nokia Corporation$4.04(2.54%)
Crowd forecast $3.9 2020-01-31
Crowd forecast
SINA Corporation$40.25(2.73%)
Crowd forecast $37 2020-01-31
dmoney Well-calibrated. Correct 80 % of the time. 4199.02 (edited)
$50 $100 forecast for 2020-12-31

Sina is a Chinese online media company that has been around since 1999. Sina provides news related products in a whole range of different verticals. Sina has not been an enjoyable investment, falling 70% from it’s top back in 2010! What makes Sina interesting is not it’s media news business (Who cares? Definitely has not exited investors for the last decade), but their 46% stake in Weibo (Chinese twitter). Sina’s current market cap is $3 billion and their Weibo shares alone are worth around $5 billion, AND they’ve got $2.9 billion in cash. They do have some debt and are currently priced at P/B 1.

Apparently it seems like investors are afraid that Sina will be busy burning cash for the next few years, ensuring that the investors never will get their values realised. Recently however Sina announced that they will buy back $500 million worth of their own shares, which built some confidence in investors that Sina’s management is not complete idiots after all. The share quickly increased by 20%.

Sina then is mostly about Weibo. The Weibo stock is down about 64% from the top, maybe somewhat because of their slowing growth. Weibo is however very profitable and with $2.4 billion in cash, giving them financial leeway.

Sina’s own media news business is actually still growing and they are profitable and priced at a forward P/E of 15.

I believe Sina is way underpriced and may be target for an acquisition. Their core business is not sexy and Weibo have had some issues lately, but Sina’s share repurchasing program seems to me to prove that their management are intending to realise shareholder value.

2
Shopify Inc.$467.0276(3.53%)
Crowd forecast $418.75 2020-01-31
dmoney Well-calibrated. Correct 80 % of the time. 4199.02
$440 $480 forecast for 2020-01-31
2
Snap Inc.$18.995(2.01%)
Crowd forecast $16.93 2020-01-31
dmoney Well-calibrated. Correct 80 % of the time. 4199.02
$15 $18 forecast for 2020-02-29
2
The Boeing Company$317.57(0.31%)
Crowd forecast $301.25 2020-01-31
yhoiseth Well-calibrated. Correct 76.92307692307692 % of the time. -415.47
$200 $350 forecast for 2020-06-30
1
XRP$0.23538(2%)
Crowd forecast $0.21 2020-01-31
dmoney Well-calibrated. Correct 80 % of the time. 4199.02
$0.17 $0.23 forecast for 2020-02-29
2