It's funny how Musk has gotten such a loyal investor base—at least, that's what the price seems to be a sign of.
Baidu is the dominant search engine provider in China (70% market share) and described as chinas Google. Baidu has had a good run lately with a 30% + gain over the past couple of months after falling more than 60% from the top. I believe that there still is significant upside, this is why:
Why it's down from the top:
In 2019Q3 Baidu returned a loss for the first time since 2005, combined with no top line revenue growth.
A slowing Chinese economy resulted in companies cutting their advertising spending, hurting Baidu’s main business which is advertising (73% of total revenue).
Baidu has a 48% ownership of IQ (Chinas Netflix) which looses money like crazy, but at the same time had a 40% YoY growth 2019Q3, now with 100 million users. There certainly are risks that Baidu will keep pouring money into IQ without getting any return in the long run.
Why Baidu has a big upside:
Baidu’s core business as a search engine ecosystem provider has massive moat and the Chinese internet user population and online ad spending is still expected growing about 15% a year.
They are expected to have a 15% increase in total revenues for 2020.
Invest heavily in research and development (Cloud computing, AI, autonomous driving).
Super solid balance sheet, low debt and with a lagging P/E of about 8.
Beyond meat creates plant based products that imitate meat products such as burgers, sausages and ground beef. They went public in may 2019 and after a 670% rally from $25 to $235 they are now back at about $80. The stock really crashed after the company released a somewhat disappointing 2019Q2 results and at the same time insiders, including the CEO were cashing out like crazy - which understandably did not build trust.
They currently grow at about 30% per quarter and their products are getting available in selected stores and restaurants. Their sales are still tiny with 2019Q3 sales of $90 millions and even posted a $4 million profit for that quarter. Expected sales for 2020 is $360 millions which at the current pricing gives them a P/S of 14 - which is still crazy high. If things goes as planned they will have a P/E of 35 in 2023, which still is, expensive! Low debt, $350 million in cash and a market cap of about $5 billion gives them a lofty P/B of 13.
Competitive environment: The big players as Nestle, Morningstar Farms, Gardein, Tyson foods etc are also in this market and Beyond meats marketshare in the US for the meatless market is about 3%, but they are currently growing faster than the competition. The overall market for meatless is growing at about 25% a year and if BeyondMeat actually manages to capture significant market shares they definitely have a good business going on, and also potentially a candidate for takeover by one of the larger players in the food market. However, for their current valuation to make any sense everything has to go their way in the next few years.
Vegan and meatless has a lot of tailwind which I believe will help to keep the stock price higher than what is rational at this point, I therefore forecast a flat development over the next couple of years within a broad range since the volatility and uncertainty will be high.
If the price continues following the historical logarithmic chart and the current S2F model then we're going to see $100k+ per 1BTC in late 2021.
Slack stock holders have gotten some positive market development for the last couple of weeks. However, I think this will pass quite soon. As dmoney wrote in his analysis - the company is way overpriced. One point dmoney does not mention is the potential for monetizing all teh free users. I'm a member of maybe 10 different slack accounts, but not paying for any of them. Slack is clearly focusing on growth with the aim of monetizing all the free users at a later stage. I don't know the share of paying users at this point, but would expect it to be very small. There are definitely some hazzle involved by changing to another service, so they will probably succeed in increasing their paying user base substantially if they really pressure on monetization.
Uber is losing about 20-30 cent on every dollar of revenue (cash flow). Analysts estimate that they should break even in about 2025, which I'm really not convinced they will. Their current cash reserve will hold them afloat for about 3 years. Their current market value is about 50 billion $, but with a 13 billion revenue and 3.5 billion negative cash flow.
For this valuation to be anything but dreams and hopes they will have to grow their revenues by several hundred percent and at the same time increase their profit margins from -30% to +10%. Which I don't belive they will manage. Mostly because the ride hailing market has proven to not have the scale advantages one maybe believed before, with new competitors entering and often able to deliver a service better adapted to local circumstances. I belive people will start to recognise all this within a couple of years. Bear
Aurora cannabis operates in 25 countries and produce cannabis in 15 countries and own companies in the whole value chain. They have aggressively acquired companies for the last few years, financed by issuing new stocks which has diluted current investors. It has been a rough year for Aurora investors with a 80% crash from the top.
Financials: Market cap 2.1 Billions. P/B of about 0.5, but only $190 million in cash. P/S of 7.1. There is always a question how much are those assets really are worth if they were to try and liquidate some assets to improve runway? Currently their aggressive growth and expansion plan results in the company loosing money like crazy. 14% of shares shorted.
Aurora expects their revenue to triple from around $200million in 2019 to $600million in 2020. Aurora has lately started to cut costs and slow expansion plans, but they will still probably have to raise more capital within a year regardless of their austerity measures.
Crowded space with many players trying to grow. The market is expected to grow substantially globally with a doubling within 2023 from todays total sales. Currently there are industry wide problems with sales licences and slow rollout of dispensaries, which makes it difficult to get products to market. This should however be a passing problem. Even though there is a movement of countries legalising cannabis products, this might stop at one point and even be rolled back if proves of negative effects starts to pile up.
The most important question in all of this is probably if Aurora will be able to operate with high margins and thus create a good business over time if they manage to tackle current problems and get out on the other side. Owning more of the value chain could help them, but my opinion is that cannabis is more like producing rice than it is a brand name like apple. I therefore believe that there are little chance of maintaining high operating margins over time.
Monero really breaking out! I really believe in Monero and can't see why it should not be the number one altcoin over time. Great community and tech
58.com is the leading classifieds site in China. The competition is increasing, but at the same time the Chinese classifieds market is growing fast.
58.com had a ok 2019Q3 with good YoY growth in revenue and earnings, but the user growth in their main business areas was less impressive. The market however seemed more impressed than me and the stock has gone up with 30% since mid november 2019.
The company is super solid with a strong balance sheet and no debt. The stock price is closing in on a technical resistance level at around 68 and the stock might have problems blowing past that level in the short term. I expect a slightly upward trend going forward over the next two years.
Reasonable priced, but AT&T is not the future.
Super solid, ok return on assets, reasonable priced at 29 times earnings, good growth potensial, more so in revenues than earnings (it's hard to invent a new money printing machine like adwords). I'm expecting a slightly upward trend
Great company with high ROE, solid balance sheet, high growth - all the good stuff:) Still expensive based on their earnings. PE about 85, but unlike most tech companies they actually have earnings. I don't really see that much upside potential over the next two years since they are already very expensive, but also limited downside.
Apple is of course a legendary strong business with super strong moat. People with iPhone and Mac's don't really care about the price, they just are not interested in changing to something else that's cheaper. They are up 100% in the last year and almost 30X from 2008!
Their expected growth is however moderate compared to other tech companies and their pricing of P/E 26 is expensive, but same as the market average. They are trying to capture market shares in streaming etc and this might prove to be expensive, but for a $1 trillion company with $100 billions in cash they can affard burning some cash.
I expect a flat development within a narrower range than I would normally set.
People got a bit too exited for Bank of America after Buffet doubled down. Bear
Ethereum have some cool application areas, but let's be real - the world will not be run on smart contracts. Also the network effects are very limited.
Express inc has had a solid run lately after the company announced that it will close down 91 stores within the end of 2022 and save costs of $100 million. 2019Q4 results will have a big impact as people are excited to see the effect of the new strategy and brand image.
Facebook has had very low volatility the last year. Predictable business and revenues
Has rallied after the accusations in the autumn of 2019. I think the worries are legit. Bear
General Motors might fall to 25 in the coming month if the resistance around 31 is broken, and especially if 2019Q4 results turns out to be on the weaker side.
Expect huge volatility for YY stock for the next month. 2019Q4 results - can they follow up the super strong growth from 2019Q3? Also the corona virus development will heavily impact the general stock market development in China the next month
Fast, well known and a strong ecosystem. I expect a slightly upward trend
Microsoft stock is getting fully priced and the upside potential for the short run should be limited.
Massive crash, down more than 20% in the last few days. I can't find any news other than the general bear sentiment in the Chinese market following the fear of a massive flu pandemic. Momo had rallied for weeks, so probably a lot of people that wanted to secure some profit. I expect this fall to be short lasting and should bottom out at between 27 and 30.
People got a bit too exited here. Has already crashed 25% in a couple of weeks. Though competition, already expensive and cyclical. Bear for the end of 2020
Netflix stock is still very expensive, but good news such as their decision to increase prices and great views for their new show "The Witcher"
Well, Nokia is done. Slow death
Sina is a Chinese online media company that has been around since 1999. Sina provides news related products in a whole range of different verticals. Sina has not been an enjoyable investment, falling 70% from it’s top back in 2010! What makes Sina interesting is not it’s media news business (Who cares? Definitely has not exited investors for the last decade), but their 46% stake in Weibo (Chinese twitter). Sina’s current market cap is $3 billion and their Weibo shares alone are worth around $5 billion, AND they’ve got $2.9 billion in cash. They do have some debt and are currently priced at P/B 1.
Apparently it seems like investors are afraid that Sina will be busy burning cash for the next few years, ensuring that the investors never will get their values realised. Recently however Sina announced that they will buy back $500 million worth of their own shares, which built some confidence in investors that Sina’s management is not complete idiots after all. The share quickly increased by 20%.
Sina then is mostly about Weibo. The Weibo stock is down about 64% from the top, maybe somewhat because of their slowing growth. Weibo is however very profitable and with $2.4 billion in cash, giving them financial leeway.
Sina’s own media news business is actually still growing and they are profitable and priced at a forward P/E of 15.
I believe Sina is way underpriced and may be target for an acquisition. Their core business is not sexy and Weibo have had some issues lately, but Sina’s share repurchasing program seems to me to prove that their management are intending to realise shareholder value.
Insane bull run for the last two months!
The Snap Stock is extremely expensive. I expect a retraction over the next month
Exciting company with good growth and solid balance sheet. About to break even after losing money for a few years. Steeply priced at 5 times revenue. Competition increasing from apple and youtube and a lot of smaller players. I'm expecting low margins and a race to the bottom. This I believe will result in a declining stock price over the next couple of years.
Ars Technica: 737 Max fix slips to summer—and that’s just one of Boeing’s problems. This doesn't look good. I'm more bear now.
Not impressed by their recent growth numbers. Twitter has done well on monetization, but still expensive. Bear
I don't expect any big changes for ripple going forward
Yandex is the Russian Google. The company was founded in 2004 and provides search engine related services, online advertising, classifieds, email and various tech products such as cloud computing mainly in Russia and eastern Europe. The stock crashed 25% in october 2019 when the Russian legislation tried to pass laws that let the government have total control of all email and online communication activity. The fear of this becoming a reality rapidly evaporated and the stock has rallied 50% in the past couple of months.
Yandex has super strong moat and are expected to grow earnings and revenue at more than 30% for the next few years. They have no debt and loads of cash. Current valuation is at a P/E of 46 with a forward P/E of around 25. Taking the extra risk of operating mainly in Russia and compared to the rest of the Russian market the current price is somewhat steep and depends on Yandex really delivering on their growth targets. The current price is also closing in at all time highs at a level that the stock price has not managed to break the previous 4 times it was this high, we might therefore see a retraction in the short term.
I'm expecting a slight upward trend over the next couple of years.
Zynga will present 2019Q4 results on February 5th 2020. After almost a doubling of the stock price in 2019, the stock will be hit hard if the results are on the weaker side. Expect huge volatility.