Crowd forecast 79,342 2020-02-17
dmoney Overconfident. Correct 68.97 % of the time. 4576.34
57000 76000 forecast for 2020-02-18
3
Beyond Meat, Inc.$116.22(3.76%)
Crowd forecast $100.37 2020-03-31
dmoney Overconfident. Correct 68.97 % of the time. 4576.34 (edited)
$100.00 $145.00 forecast for 2020-01-31
1
Crowd forecast $36.68 2020-02-29
Crowd forecast $1.47 2020-02-29
dmoney Overconfident. Correct 68.97 % of the time. 4576.34
$0.20 $0.80 forecast for 2021-12-31

Aurora cannabis operates in 25 countries and produce cannabis in 15 countries and own companies in the whole value chain. They have aggressively acquired companies for the last few years, financed by issuing new stocks which has diluted current investors. It has been a rough year for Aurora investors with a 80% crash from the top.

Financials: Market cap 2.1 Billions. P/B of about 0.5, but only $190 million in cash. P/S of 7.1. There is always a question how much are those assets really are worth if they were to try and liquidate some assets to improve runway? Currently their aggressive growth and expansion plan results in the company loosing money like crazy. 14% of shares shorted. Aurora expects their revenue to triple from around $200million in 2019 to $600million in 2020. Aurora has lately started to cut costs and slow expansion plans, but they will still probably have to raise more capital within a year regardless of their austerity measures.

Crowded space with many players trying to grow. The market is expected to grow substantially globally with a doubling within 2023 from todays total sales. Currently there are industry wide problems with sales licences and slow rollout of dispensaries, which makes it difficult to get products to market. This should however be a passing problem. Even though there is a movement of countries legalising cannabis products, this might stop at one point and even be rolled back if proves of negative effects starts to pile up.

The most important question in all of this is probably if Aurora will be able to operate with high margins and thus create a good business over time if they manage to tackle current problems and get out on the other side. Owning more of the value chain could help them, but my opinion is that cannabis is more like producing rice than it is a brand name like apple. I therefore believe that there are little chance of maintaining high operating margins over time.

2
AT&T Inc.$38.25(-0.16%)
Crowd forecast $37.42 2020-02-29
insighter Overconfident. Correct 26.67 % of the time. -1638.71
$20.00 $30.00 forecast for 2020-12-31
1
Crowd forecast $32.45 2020-02-29
insighter Overconfident. Correct 26.67 % of the time. -1638.71 (edited)
$20.00 $30.00 forecast for 2020-12-31
1
Facebook, Inc.$214.18(0.49%)
Crowd forecast $196.16 2020-02-29
Crowd forecast $12.84 2020-02-29
insighter Overconfident. Correct 26.67 % of the time. -1638.71
$6.00 $9.00 forecast for 2020-12-31
0
Crowd forecast $31.66 2020-02-29
Litecoin$71.22(-4.62%)
Crowd forecast $71.95 2020-02-29
dmoney Overconfident. Correct 68.97 % of the time. 4576.34
$30.00 $75.00 forecast for 2020-12-31
3
Microsoft Corporation$185.35(0.89%)
Crowd forecast $170.81 2020-02-29
dmoney Overconfident. Correct 68.97 % of the time. 4576.34
$155.00 $170.00 forecast for 2020-02-29
2
NIO Limited$3.77(-6.45%)
Crowd forecast $3.92 2020-03-31
Netflix, Inc.$380.4(-0.26%)
Crowd forecast $352.1 2020-02-29
Nokia Corporation$4.33(-0.23%)
Crowd forecast $4 2020-02-29
insighter Overconfident. Correct 26.67 % of the time. -1638.71
$2.00 $4.00 forecast for 2020-12-31
0
Crowd forecast $0.01 2020-02-29
SINA Corporation$38.89(-1.24%)
Crowd forecast $43.13 2020-02-29
dmoney Overconfident. Correct 68.97 % of the time. 4576.34 (edited)
$50.00 $100.00 forecast for 2020-12-31

Sina is a Chinese online media company that has been around since 1999. Sina provides news related products in a whole range of different verticals. Sina has not been an enjoyable investment, falling 70% from it’s top back in 2010! What makes Sina interesting is not it’s media news business (Who cares? Definitely has not exited investors for the last decade), but their 46% stake in Weibo (Chinese twitter). Sina’s current market cap is $3 billion and their Weibo shares alone are worth around $5 billion, AND they’ve got $2.9 billion in cash. They do have some debt and are currently priced at P/B 1.

Apparently it seems like investors are afraid that Sina will be busy burning cash for the next few years, ensuring that the investors never will get their values realised. Recently however Sina announced that they will buy back $500 million worth of their own shares, which built some confidence in investors that Sina’s management is not complete idiots after all. The share quickly increased by 20%.

Sina then is mostly about Weibo. The Weibo stock is down about 64% from the top, maybe somewhat because of their slowing growth. Weibo is however very profitable and with $2.4 billion in cash, giving them financial leeway.

Sina’s own media news business is actually still growing and they are profitable and priced at a forward P/E of 15.

I believe Sina is way underpriced and may be target for an acquisition. Their core business is not sexy and Weibo have had some issues lately, but Sina’s share repurchasing program seems to me to prove that their management are intending to realise shareholder value.

2
Shopify Inc.$531.22(-0.33%)
Crowd forecast $473.05 2020-02-29
dmoney Overconfident. Correct 68.97 % of the time. 4576.34
$440.00 $480.00 forecast for 2020-01-31
2
Snap Inc.$17.56(-0.17%)
Crowd forecast $17.88 2020-02-29
dmoney Overconfident. Correct 68.97 % of the time. 4576.34
$15.00 $18.00 forecast for 2020-02-29
2
The Boeing Company$340.49(-0.68%)
Crowd forecast $323.93 2020-02-29
insighter Overconfident. Correct 26.67 % of the time. -1638.71
$150.00 $220.00 forecast for 2020-12-31
2
Twitter, Inc.$36.91(-0.67%)
Crowd forecast $31.46 2020-02-29
insighter Overconfident. Correct 26.67 % of the time. -1638.71
$25.00 $30.00 forecast for 2020-01-31
1
XRP$0.28(-3.56%)
Crowd forecast $0.24 2020-02-29
dmoney Overconfident. Correct 68.97 % of the time. 4576.34
$0.17 $0.23 forecast for 2020-02-29
2
Crowd forecast 79,342 2020-02-17
dmoney Overconfident. Correct 68.97 % of the time. 4576.34
57000 76000 forecast for 2020-02-18
3
Beyond Meat, Inc.$116.22(3.76%)
Crowd forecast $100.37 2020-03-31
dmoney Overconfident. Correct 68.97 % of the time. 4576.34 (edited)
$100.00 $145.00 forecast for 2020-01-31
1
Crowd forecast $36.68 2020-02-29
Crowd forecast $1.47 2020-02-29
dmoney Overconfident. Correct 68.97 % of the time. 4576.34
$0.20 $0.80 forecast for 2021-12-31

Aurora cannabis operates in 25 countries and produce cannabis in 15 countries and own companies in the whole value chain. They have aggressively acquired companies for the last few years, financed by issuing new stocks which has diluted current investors. It has been a rough year for Aurora investors with a 80% crash from the top.

Financials: Market cap 2.1 Billions. P/B of about 0.5, but only $190 million in cash. P/S of 7.1. There is always a question how much are those assets really are worth if they were to try and liquidate some assets to improve runway? Currently their aggressive growth and expansion plan results in the company loosing money like crazy. 14% of shares shorted. Aurora expects their revenue to triple from around $200million in 2019 to $600million in 2020. Aurora has lately started to cut costs and slow expansion plans, but they will still probably have to raise more capital within a year regardless of their austerity measures.

Crowded space with many players trying to grow. The market is expected to grow substantially globally with a doubling within 2023 from todays total sales. Currently there are industry wide problems with sales licences and slow rollout of dispensaries, which makes it difficult to get products to market. This should however be a passing problem. Even though there is a movement of countries legalising cannabis products, this might stop at one point and even be rolled back if proves of negative effects starts to pile up.

The most important question in all of this is probably if Aurora will be able to operate with high margins and thus create a good business over time if they manage to tackle current problems and get out on the other side. Owning more of the value chain could help them, but my opinion is that cannabis is more like producing rice than it is a brand name like apple. I therefore believe that there are little chance of maintaining high operating margins over time.

2
AT&T Inc.$38.25(-0.16%)
Crowd forecast $37.42 2020-02-29
insighter Overconfident. Correct 26.67 % of the time. -1638.71
$20.00 $30.00 forecast for 2020-12-31
1
Crowd forecast $32.45 2020-02-29
insighter Overconfident. Correct 26.67 % of the time. -1638.71 (edited)
$20.00 $30.00 forecast for 2020-12-31
1
Facebook, Inc.$214.18(0.49%)
Crowd forecast $196.16 2020-02-29
Crowd forecast $12.84 2020-02-29
insighter Overconfident. Correct 26.67 % of the time. -1638.71
$6.00 $9.00 forecast for 2020-12-31
0
Crowd forecast $31.66 2020-02-29
Litecoin$71.22(-4.62%)
Crowd forecast $71.95 2020-02-29
dmoney Overconfident. Correct 68.97 % of the time. 4576.34
$30.00 $75.00 forecast for 2020-12-31
3
Microsoft Corporation$185.35(0.89%)
Crowd forecast $170.81 2020-02-29
dmoney Overconfident. Correct 68.97 % of the time. 4576.34
$155.00 $170.00 forecast for 2020-02-29
2
NIO Limited$3.77(-6.45%)
Crowd forecast $3.92 2020-03-31
Netflix, Inc.$380.4(-0.26%)
Crowd forecast $352.1 2020-02-29
Nokia Corporation$4.33(-0.23%)
Crowd forecast $4 2020-02-29
insighter Overconfident. Correct 26.67 % of the time. -1638.71
$2.00 $4.00 forecast for 2020-12-31
0
Crowd forecast $0.01 2020-02-29
SINA Corporation$38.89(-1.24%)
Crowd forecast $43.13 2020-02-29
dmoney Overconfident. Correct 68.97 % of the time. 4576.34 (edited)
$50.00 $100.00 forecast for 2020-12-31

Sina is a Chinese online media company that has been around since 1999. Sina provides news related products in a whole range of different verticals. Sina has not been an enjoyable investment, falling 70% from it’s top back in 2010! What makes Sina interesting is not it’s media news business (Who cares? Definitely has not exited investors for the last decade), but their 46% stake in Weibo (Chinese twitter). Sina’s current market cap is $3 billion and their Weibo shares alone are worth around $5 billion, AND they’ve got $2.9 billion in cash. They do have some debt and are currently priced at P/B 1.

Apparently it seems like investors are afraid that Sina will be busy burning cash for the next few years, ensuring that the investors never will get their values realised. Recently however Sina announced that they will buy back $500 million worth of their own shares, which built some confidence in investors that Sina’s management is not complete idiots after all. The share quickly increased by 20%.

Sina then is mostly about Weibo. The Weibo stock is down about 64% from the top, maybe somewhat because of their slowing growth. Weibo is however very profitable and with $2.4 billion in cash, giving them financial leeway.

Sina’s own media news business is actually still growing and they are profitable and priced at a forward P/E of 15.

I believe Sina is way underpriced and may be target for an acquisition. Their core business is not sexy and Weibo have had some issues lately, but Sina’s share repurchasing program seems to me to prove that their management are intending to realise shareholder value.

2
Shopify Inc.$531.22(-0.33%)
Crowd forecast $473.05 2020-02-29
dmoney Overconfident. Correct 68.97 % of the time. 4576.34
$440.00 $480.00 forecast for 2020-01-31
2
Snap Inc.$17.56(-0.17%)
Crowd forecast $17.88 2020-02-29
dmoney Overconfident. Correct 68.97 % of the time. 4576.34
$15.00 $18.00 forecast for 2020-02-29
2
The Boeing Company$340.49(-0.68%)
Crowd forecast $323.93 2020-02-29
insighter Overconfident. Correct 26.67 % of the time. -1638.71
$150.00 $220.00 forecast for 2020-12-31
2
Twitter, Inc.$36.91(-0.67%)
Crowd forecast $31.46 2020-02-29
insighter Overconfident. Correct 26.67 % of the time. -1638.71
$25.00 $30.00 forecast for 2020-01-31
1
XRP$0.28(-3.56%)
Crowd forecast $0.24 2020-02-29
dmoney Overconfident. Correct 68.97 % of the time. 4576.34
$0.17 $0.23 forecast for 2020-02-29
2
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