the increase in new reported cases of the coronavirus has been linear or even a little bit declining over the last few days. Number of deaths however has been increasing at a faster rate as seen here https://www.empiricast.com/time-series/66?chart=past . Also currently with more than 7000 people in severe condition and no effective treatment this number can increase rapidly.
Very high uncertainty. Better treatment options for people in critical condition would mean we are close to a peak in the total death tolls form the coronavirus.
One interesting observation is that Tesla is part of many index tracking funds. When the stock is increasing, the funds must keep buying it to keep it's weight in portfolios. It's like a buttpug that goes deeper and deeper. Maybe the plug will come out of the mouth soon?
Baidu delivered super solid 2019Q4 results. Significantly up and when the Corona virus chaos are reduced we should see strong development going forward
We might see a short term run for the Beyond Meat stock up to the resistance at around 150.
If the price continues following the historical logarithmic chart and the current S2F model then we're going to see $100k+ per 1BTC in late 2021.
Slack stock holders have gotten some positive market development for the last couple of weeks. However, I think this will pass quite soon. As dmoney wrote in his analysis - the company is way overpriced. One point dmoney does not mention is the potential for monetizing all teh free users. I'm a member of maybe 10 different slack accounts, but not paying for any of them. Slack is clearly focusing on growth with the aim of monetizing all the free users at a later stage. I don't know the share of paying users at this point, but would expect it to be very small. There are definitely some hazzle involved by changing to another service, so they will probably succeed in increasing their paying user base substantially if they really pressure on monetization.
I believe the Uber stock has reach the heights for now after a strong 20% increase for January and we should see a retraction over the next month
Aurora cannabis operates in 25 countries and produce cannabis in 15 countries and own companies in the whole value chain. They have aggressively acquired companies for the last few years, financed by issuing new stocks which has diluted current investors. It has been a rough year for Aurora investors with a 80% crash from the top.
Financials: Market cap 2.1 Billions. P/B of about 0.5, but only $190 million in cash. P/S of 7.1. There is always a question how much are those assets really are worth if they were to try and liquidate some assets to improve runway? Currently their aggressive growth and expansion plan results in the company loosing money like crazy. 14% of shares shorted.
Aurora expects their revenue to triple from around $200million in 2019 to $600million in 2020. Aurora has lately started to cut costs and slow expansion plans, but they will still probably have to raise more capital within a year regardless of their austerity measures.
Crowded space with many players trying to grow. The market is expected to grow substantially globally with a doubling within 2023 from todays total sales. Currently there are industry wide problems with sales licences and slow rollout of dispensaries, which makes it difficult to get products to market. This should however be a passing problem. Even though there is a movement of countries legalising cannabis products, this might stop at one point and even be rolled back if proves of negative effects starts to pile up.
The most important question in all of this is probably if Aurora will be able to operate with high margins and thus create a good business over time if they manage to tackle current problems and get out on the other side. Owning more of the value chain could help them, but my opinion is that cannabis is more like producing rice than it is a brand name like apple. I therefore believe that there are little chance of maintaining high operating margins over time.
Monero really breaking out! I really believe in Monero and can't see why it should not be the number one altcoin over time. Great community and tech
58.com is the leading classifieds site in China. The competition is increasing, but at the same time the Chinese classifieds market is growing fast.
58.com had a ok 2019Q3 with good YoY growth in revenue and earnings, but the user growth in their main business areas was less impressive. The market however seemed more impressed than me and the stock has gone up with 30% since mid november 2019.
The company is super solid with a strong balance sheet and no debt. The stock price is closing in on a technical resistance level at around 68 and the stock might have problems blowing past that level in the short term. I expect a slightly upward trend going forward over the next two years.
Reasonable priced, but AT&T is not the future.
Super solid, ok return on assets, reasonable priced at 29 times earnings, good growth potensial, more so in revenues than earnings (it's hard to invent a new money printing machine like adwords). I'm expecting a slightly upward trend
Great company with high ROE, solid balance sheet, high growth - all the good stuff:) Still expensive based on their earnings. PE about 85, but unlike most tech companies they actually have earnings. I don't really see that much upside potential over the next two years since they are already very expensive, but also limited downside.
Apple is of course a legendary strong business with super strong moat. People with iPhone and Mac's don't really care about the price, they just are not interested in changing to something else that's cheaper. They are up 100% in the last year and almost 30X from 2008!
Their expected growth is however moderate compared to other tech companies and their pricing of P/E 26 is expensive, but same as the market average. They are trying to capture market shares in streaming etc and this might prove to be expensive, but for a $1 trillion company with $100 billions in cash they can affard burning some cash.
I expect a flat development within a narrower range than I would normally set.
People got a bit too exited for Bank of America after Buffet doubled down. Bear
Ethereum have some cool application areas, but let's be real - the world will not be run on smart contracts. Also the network effects are very limited.
Express inc has had a solid run lately after the company announced that it will close down 91 stores within the end of 2022 and save costs of $100 million. 2019Q4 results will have a big impact as people are excited to see the effect of the new strategy and brand image.
Facebook has had very low volatility the last year. Predictable business and revenues
Has rallied after the accusations in the autumn of 2019. I think the worries are legit. Bear
General Motors might fall to 25 in the coming month if the resistance around 31 is broken, and especially if 2019Q4 results turns out to be on the weaker side.
Expect huge volatility for YY stock for the next month. 2019Q4 results - can they follow up the super strong growth from 2019Q3? Also the corona virus development will heavily impact the general stock market development in China the next month
Fast, well known and a strong ecosystem. I expect a slightly upward trend
Microsoft stock is getting fully priced and the upside potential for the short run should be limited.
Momo Inc is a Chinese social entertainment platform founded in 2011. The company has has an explosive growth in revenue for the last few years with a 50% yearly growth in 2018 and 2019 and at the same time posting great earnings with a profit margin of 15-25%.
Momo is valued at $8billion. The market leader YY is valued at $5 billion even though their revenues are 30% higher, reflecting the markets belief in Momo's continued growth. Both companies have about the same forward P/E of 12, which is indeed very cheap for fast growing companies. YY however has a more solid balance sheet with less debt and almost twice the cash reserve.
2020 will be very interesting as people will be very curious to see which of the two companies manages to grow faster and wether Momo are closing in on the market leader. If they do manage to do this it would be super positive for the stock price development. On the other hand, if Momo posts a bad quarter with declining user growth the stock will be punished hard.
I believe Momo will increase over the next two years, but it will be a bumpy road.
People got a bit too exited here. Has already crashed 25% in a couple of weeks. Though competition, already expensive and cyclical. Bear for the end of 2020
Netflix stock is still very expensive, but good news such as their decision to increase prices and great views for their new show "The Witcher"
Well, Nokia is done. Slow death
Sina is a Chinese online media company that has been around since 1999. Sina provides news related products in a whole range of different verticals. Sina has not been an enjoyable investment, falling 70% from it’s top back in 2010! What makes Sina interesting is not it’s media news business (Who cares? Definitely has not exited investors for the last decade), but their 46% stake in Weibo (Chinese twitter). Sina’s current market cap is $3 billion and their Weibo shares alone are worth around $5 billion, AND they’ve got $2.9 billion in cash. They do have some debt and are currently priced at P/B 1.
Apparently it seems like investors are afraid that Sina will be busy burning cash for the next few years, ensuring that the investors never will get their values realised. Recently however Sina announced that they will buy back $500 million worth of their own shares, which built some confidence in investors that Sina’s management is not complete idiots after all. The share quickly increased by 20%.
Sina then is mostly about Weibo. The Weibo stock is down about 64% from the top, maybe somewhat because of their slowing growth. Weibo is however very profitable and with $2.4 billion in cash, giving them financial leeway.
Sina’s own media news business is actually still growing and they are profitable and priced at a forward P/E of 15.
I believe Sina is way underpriced and may be target for an acquisition. Their core business is not sexy and Weibo have had some issues lately, but Sina’s share repurchasing program seems to me to prove that their management are intending to realise shareholder value.
Insane bull run for the last two months!
The Snap Stock is extremely expensive. I expect a retraction over the next month
Exciting company with good growth and solid balance sheet. About to break even after losing money for a few years. Steeply priced at 5 times revenue. Competition increasing from apple and youtube and a lot of smaller players. I'm expecting low margins and a race to the bottom. This I believe will result in a declining stock price over the next couple of years.
Cyclical stock. Oversupply in the market. This will not be a good year for Boeing.
Not impressed by their recent growth numbers. Twitter has done well on monetization, but still expensive. Bear
I don't expect any big changes for ripple going forward
Yandex is the Russian Google. The company was founded in 2004 and provides search engine related services, online advertising, classifieds, email and various tech products such as cloud computing mainly in Russia and eastern Europe. The stock crashed 25% in october 2019 when the Russian legislation tried to pass laws that let the government have total control of all email and online communication activity. The fear of this becoming a reality rapidly evaporated and the stock has rallied 50% in the past couple of months.
Yandex has super strong moat and are expected to grow earnings and revenue at more than 30% for the next few years. They have no debt and loads of cash. Current valuation is at a P/E of 46 with a forward P/E of around 25. Taking the extra risk of operating mainly in Russia and compared to the rest of the Russian market the current price is somewhat steep and depends on Yandex really delivering on their growth targets. The current price is also closing in at all time highs at a level that the stock price has not managed to break the previous 4 times it was this high, we might therefore see a retraction in the short term.
I'm expecting a slight upward trend over the next couple of years.
Zynga will present 2019Q4 results on February 5th 2020. After almost a doubling of the stock price in 2019, the stock will be hit hard if the results are on the weaker side. Expect huge volatility.