Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Total Cases64,422

Make a range with 80 % certainty

If you make predictions, you will

  • affect the crowd forecast;
  • be allowed to participate in the discussion; and
  • get a score when the target date arrives. Are you underconfident, overconfident, or well-calibrated? Are you too pessimistic, too optimistic, or spot on?

Log in or sign up to get started.

dmoney Overconfident. Correct 68.97 % of the time. 4576.34
57000 76000 forecast for 2020-02-18

the increase in new reported cases of the coronavirus has been linear or even a little bit declining over the last few days. Number of deaths however has been increasing at a faster rate as seen here . Also currently with more than 7000 people in severe condition and no effective treatment this number can increase rapidly.

dmoney Overconfident. Correct 68.97 % of the time. 4576.34 (edited)

If there are anyone in the world that should be able to get the coronavirus under control it's the Chinese.

insighter Overconfident. Correct 26.67 % of the time. -1638.71 (edited)

Growth in new cases of coronavirus seems to be slowing down, or worst case - still linear, but exponential growth seems to become more unlikely.

insighter Overconfident. Correct 26.67 % of the time. -1638.71 (edited)
35000 45000 forecast for 2020-02-12

The growth in new cases of the coronavirus have been linear for the last couple of days - which mean we should see a sharp decline in the increase of total cases within a few days.

forking 197.16

The uncertainty for total number of confirmed cases of the coronavirus is very high. It's hard to know what the chinese government are doing to track down people who potentially could be infected. New initiatives to test people could make the number spike quickly. At the same time we could be very close to the peak already.

insighter Overconfident. Correct 26.67 % of the time. -1638.71
55000 75000 forecast for 2020-02-14

The coronavirus increase in new cases seemed to be slowing, but at 13. of February the increase in new cases jumped with 14840 new cases - reportedly because of new diagnostic methods where patients get a lung scan instead of using tests that detect the virus' genetic code

My predictions
Loading my predictions…
Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Total Cases leaderboard