Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Total Deaths1,770

Make a range with 80 % certainty

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forking 197.16

Very high uncertainty. Better treatment options for people in critical condition would mean we are close to a peak in the total death tolls form the coronavirus.

insighter Overconfident. Correct 26.67 % of the time. -1638.71 (edited)

I believe the total number of confirmed cases are underestimated and that there are high uncertainty around the 2% death rate currently estimated from the coronavirus. It will probably increase somewhat, also with the high number of people in critical condition.

dmoney Overconfident. Correct 68.97 % of the time. 4576.34 (edited)

The deaths from the coronavirus is lagging number of confirmed cases. Around 6000 people in critical condition and it's hard to know the death rate among those. So far the death rate is around 2% which will mean that the total number of deaths should max out between 1300 and 2000 if the forecast for total cases are about right.

insighter Overconfident. Correct 26.67 % of the time. -1638.71
1320 1550 forecast for 2020-02-14

Total deaths from the coronavirus increased to 1310 on the 13th of February.

insighter Overconfident. Correct 26.67 % of the time. -1638.71
1600 2500 forecast for 2020-02-28

With over 7000 people in severe condition from the coronavirus the number of total deaths could increase rapidly if we don't find any effective treatment options.

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